The skewed perspective of a conservative Catholic employee-side employment lawyer living in the most exciting city in the Milky Way, Las Vegas, Nevada USA, who listens to a lot of really strange music and who, for some reason, lives and dies St. Louis Cardinal baseball

3/01/2005

Hillary! in 2008?

Over at the GayPatriot site, ever-vigilant GayPatriotWest reports the first sighting of a Hillary '08 bumpersticker, on an L.A. freeway. He then voices concern as to whether she can be beaten then.

In my opinion, it's way too early to begin handicapping the 2008 race. There's way too much of the Bush-43 presidency yet to be played out. It is already evident that W. will have a much more active and vital second term than any president since FDR. What will the public reaction be to this? "More, more, more"? Or "make it stop"?

Below I linked to a recent bit of excellent analysis from Michael Barone (and, yes, I'm being repetitively redundant when I label a Michael Barone piece "excellent analysis") concluding that W and his Svengali Karl Rove (along with the able support of Ken Mehlman) have laid the groundwork for a long period of Republican dominance. The analogy is to Rove's hero, William McKinley, and his 1896 triumph over the Great Commoner, the Boy Orator of the Platte, William Jennings Bryan, which started a Republican Era that did not end until the Great Depression and the rise of FDR in an election precisely 36 years later.

Yes, Hillary likely would be the Dem nominee if she wants it. Whether that'll be worth anything will depend largely on events yet to be played out in the Bush presidency, primarily in the Middle East (although the social security debate may play a role). I'm betting that it won't matter who the Dems put up.

Also bear in mind that Hillary would have problems winning a presidential election over and above her divisiveness and her scandal baggage. People like presidents who have previously served in an executive capacity. What has Hillary run? Her Hillarycare initiative? Yeah, yeah, I remember the whole "two for the price of one" talk early in Bill Clinton's career, but Bill still was the executive. Hillary has never been perceived as an executive. Normally that's a problem. In the post-9/11 world, it's likely fatal.

The Republican contest in '08 is guaranteed to a wide-open free-for-all. Of the viable contenders who are currently the subject of speculation and mentioning, only Newt Gingrich would stand a chance at losing to Hillary. He is the only major political figure who is Hillary's match in terms of pure divisiveness. Even the colorless Bill Frist could win in a walk if things go right in the second half of the W-presidency.

So who's my early choice? Condi and Rudy! I don't care which end is up on that ticket, I'll not only vote for either one, I'll knock on every door in southern Nevada (well, at least the ones Ken Mehlman directs me to knock on) looking for votes for them. Bottom line, though, is it's early. Not too early to begin working to win in '08, mind you, just too early to begin fretting over what now may look like the inevitability of Hillary.
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